Last year, we saw how the trade war with China had a significant impact on all United States financial markets, including the mortgage market and its interest rates. That situation actually helped mortgage rates remained relatively low in 2019. By the end of the year, we were experiencing nearly historic rate lows.

The U.S.-Iran Conflict

We may be in for some more rate fluctuations as a result of the recent tensions between our country and Iran. Last week, a U.S. drown killed a top Iranian military leader. This conflict in the Middle East caused crude oil prices to rise and sent the American stock market on a sudden downward tilt.

So, how will this ultimately affect mortgage interest rates?

Expert Analysis

Different experts may provide different opinions, but most think that the mortgage rates will stay low throughout this latest international crisis. A recent article on notes that rates actually went down slightly after the initial military strike. Experts say they could even fall lower as investors are flocking to bond markets for a sense of safety during uncertain financial times. In fact, long-term interest rates often fall when there is global instability and tension.

“We don’t know how long the crisis in the Middle East will last, or what will happen,” writes Steve Randall in a separate article on “Yes, rates tend to drop in reaction to global instability, but that’s a tendency, not a certainty. During a time of conflict, it’s prudent to lock a mortgage rate when you’re quoted an acceptable one, rather than gambling for rates to drop even further.”

2020 Mortgage Rate Outlook

For now, mortgage rates are very favorable to start 2020. As always, there is never any supreme certainty that they will go up or down, and world instability like the U.S.-Iran conflict is very unpredictable for the mortgage market.

I tend to agree with Mr. Randall that it’s smart to lock in a good rate while you can. If you are approved for a mortgage loan at a currently low rate, it’s wise to accept it. Otherwise, it truly is a gamble. The rates could go down further. Or, they could go up significantly at any time. Locking in a favorable rate now is your only real guarantee. Plus, you always have an option to refinance in the future if rates continue to go down over time.

If you are looking to buy a home or refinance your current mortgage loan in the San Diego area, contact Transparent Mortgage today for expert guidance. We’ll help you explore all your loan options and lock in the best interest rate at the right time. Call us today at (619) 701-3906 or email me at